Market Forecast

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Hi everyone!

Post  TerraHertz on Sat Dec 12, 2009 5:52 am

Heh. I expected to just write a few lines of hello in here. But here at the top is a 'stocks' thread, and so... you get a typical TerraHertz rant.
Hi everyone. This is typical me. Hope it doesn't annoy _too_ many people!
---
I'm always a little amused by attempts to develop predictive models of stock (and other) market behaviours. Especially given the objective is to make money (which it always is.)

Why?
Two reasons:

1. The 'stock market' and its cluster of connected mechanisms such as futures, derivatives and other abstractions, is a complex in which the operating cause and effect relationships *change* all the time. This can be easily demonstrated, by considering:
- The objective of everyone involved is to make money.
- There will always be people who one way or another, have a better idea of the market's current mechanisms and factors than others.
- Those people (like everyone else) will modify their trading behaviour and methods based on their understandings.
- But the entire market behaviour is *formed* of the trading behaviours and methods of those involved. There is thus a feedback loop - as understandings develop, the structure which people are trying to understand changes - due to the changing understandings!
There is thus no fixed 'understanding' possible, and never can be. There is instead a constant race for profit-making methods, between those with the trading weight (and insider knowledge) to majorly influence the behaviour of the system, and everyone else. The 'everyone else' are always behind, and on average are the source of profits made by the 'insiders'. Aka they are the suckers.

2. Somewhat as a consequence of the above, the markets always have a great deal of obfuscation of their true functioning. It is in the interests of the powerful and wealthy to keep it that way - all the better to fleece the smaller fish.
In the present day this obfuscation has grown to epic proportions. There's almost nothing about the stock markets (and the entire national/global economy) that is actually as it is officially represented. Lets see... a short list of common illusions, from memory:

* Money. Is not what it's commonly thought to be. See Fiat currency scam, bankers stole the right to create money, all money is now debt, gold standard eliminated, etc.
* The assumption of Continuity. Debt-based money economics is inherently, unavoidably unstable, and absolutely does lead to periodic discontinuities. Not knowing this leads to strategies that are hopelessly inadequate in the long run.
* Stocks. You don't own them. Unless you are aware and make special efforts, you only buy and sell a right to the dividends stream. Ref CEDE & Co. etc.
* Manipulations. Plunge Protection team - government in cooperation with major financial institutions intervene to 'guide' the markets. Supposedly for the common good, but if you believe that...
* Market 'front-running'. A scam in which core trading companies eavesdropped on competitors trade orders, and traded to their own benefit in a brief window of opportunity. See http://coyoteprime-runningcauseicantfly.blogspot.com/2009/07/goldman-sachs-sergey-aleynikov-scam-of.html
* ETF gold funds. Which blatently do not have actual bullion to cover the majority of their issued gold certificates. Look for this to be the next big blow-out, as China and other fed-up market participants continue to force physical deliveries over the next few months, till the gold ETFs default. Ref tungsten bars scam, etc.
* The illusion of economic rights equality. In actuality, there is an economic Caste system in place, in which the simple folks think Stocks and the first-level dependencies such as futures and options are 'the market'. But in reality the vast majority of 'economic weight' now resides in far more abstract realms, such as derivatives and credit default swaps. It's a bit like a bunch of ants trying to conduct ant-ish business as usual on a sumo wrestling ring, after the fight starts. It's all good until they get stepped on.

And that's not even starting on matters such as whether the US government is still a constitutional entity or a corporation, whether the FED is really a Rothschild-owned private bank, and the IRS is really a huge private extortion racket operating out of Costa Rica.

One thing is for sure, the stock market has now become just another of the staged 'bread and circuses' by which the elites fool the people into a belief that all is more or less well.
What, the DOW over 10,000, while the (real) unemplyment level is over 20% and still rising? While the US dollar is clearly starting its final slide to hyperinflated, sovereign debt-default oblivion? With price to earnings ratios of many stocks well over 100 to 1? Really?
------Now, there has _got_ to be a way to fix this black text on dark gray background, that is completely illegible to me.
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TerraHertz

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Join date : 2009-12-12
Age : 62
Location : Sydney Australia

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